Monday, October 23, 2006

Is Boise State Beatable?

Yes. I know so many of you around the valley are in dire straits over the horrific performances that the Bulldogs have put on week after week. But the honest answer to this question I pose is yes. Boise State is not the same killer team they have been in the past. They give up large chunks of yards through the air just as the Bulldogs do. Boise's strength is the one thing the Bulldogs seem to defend well against: the run. Ian Johnson is the best player on Boise State and the offense goes directly through him. Here are the following reasons why Boise State should worry about Fresno State next Wednesday:

1) Boise State's Pass Defense - Horrendous would be a great word to describe how bad Boise's secondary is. I am not saying the Bulldogs secondary is any better because God knows we are horrible when it comes to the secondary. However, Boise State allowed 526 yards passing to Chase Holbrook but came out with the win over New Mexico State. Boise State then allowed 326 yards passing to Idaho's QB but again came out with a close victory. Boise State has the same exact problem in the secondary that the Bulldogs do but this will only be a plus for the Bulldogs if they decide to throw the damn ball for once.

2) The Boise-Fresno Rivalry - Fresno State will be up for this game, I don't care what anyone thinks. We may be a soft team this season as FormerDog has pointed out about a thousand times in the comments section, but I saw a different Dogs team against LSU. I thought the Dogs played well against a far superior team in LSU. If the coaching would open the offense at all the Dogs would have been in that game well into the fourth quarter. If our wide receivers would catch balls right in their hands that game against LSU could have possibly been tied going into the fourth quarter. Boise State is not on the level of LSU (even if the BCS has put them ahead in their ridiculous rankings that also has a very strong Texas team at #7). Boise State is in the position that Fresno State was in 2001 and this Bulldog team is not as bad as the 1-6 record says. Fresno State will be in this game down to the end. Of the big three game stretch they were to endure this season I felt the Boise game was the most winnable of them all. We do not match up well with Hawaii's offense and LSU is just too good overall. However, Boise State is not that much better than most NCAA teams this season and have just closed out the games the way a decent team should.

3) Pressure - Fresno State has absolutely no pressure on them anymore. They have endured one of their worst years to this date but can begin to turn things around and give us something to look forward to in 2007. Sean Norton will only get better and if the Bulldogs can follow through with a medical redshirt he will have three years remaining as the starter for the Bulldogs (even if they can't two more years as our starter bodes well for the future). This kid is a gamer and if you are not convinced that he can make the necessary throws to win games then you did not watch the LSU game closely. No the receivers dropped the great throws he made, but look how well Norton threw all three deep balls in the game. True one was underthrown to Williams but he made the catch. His other deep ball to Williams was where it needed to be and his first deep ball to Moore may have been the best throw of the day. Our offense will get better and against Boise we will score at least 30 points. Formerdog I know you don't agree, you don't have to tell me this but we will get better on offense.

This is going to be a great game between two teams that are usually at the top of the WAC year in and year out. Last year we broke the streak of four straight losses to Boise and I think we can steal one this year and ruin their BCS chances. Boise is not invincible to say the least. We just need a few breaks and have to get an interception on defense soon. We are the only divison one school without an interception this year and I am willing to bet Zabranski will throw one to us. Just have some faith, I know it's hard to right now but I really believe that fans need to support the players. Even if you have no faith in the coaching don't forget that many of the players are out their doing their best for us. Support them and know that we can only go up from here.


Anonymous said...

My formerdog impression:


He'll never change and this team is soft. It starts at the top! Hill is soft and his coordinators both are horrible.

Let me coach the team blindfolded and I'll do a better job. Hell, we'll probably even beat Boise by 40.

The offense will never change:

1st down:
Run: 1000% for the season
Pass: -200% (the only time we pass on first down is when it is to the other team hence the "-" sign)

The defense is so bad that we should go get Clovis East team and make them play. I think we should just pust in two more D-Lineman instead of out D-Backs because they just stand around and don't tackle anybody anyway.

I don't care what ncs says, my prediction:

Boise: 121
Fresno: 2 (only because Boise snaps it out of the endzone)

Oh and incase you missed it:

Anonymous said...

"Shut Your Mouth and Just Win"

formerdog said...

Yes, it's about time somebody else is Pis*ed off too!


In 2005, our offense averaged 30 points per game, 2006 - ONLY 21 points per game!

In 2005, our defense allowed 22 points per game,2006 - 32 points per game!


Hagen is absolutely horrible and NEEDS TO BE FIRED!

Dan Brown NEEDS TO BE FIRED! - FSU has always had a lousy defense, this year is NO EXCUSE. Actually, were worse this year on defense.

Pat Hill is Superman and 'LOYALTY' is his kryptonite.

Pat NEEDS to let Dan Brown go - seriously, our 'D' is terrible and always has been. Almost EVERY BCS team we have played (W or L) has put up a ton of points on our defense.

Pat has done GREAT things here, but MAJOR changes are needed to get this ship turned around and back on the course.

Hey, if you are happy with FSU being just a 'medicore' team - then your at the right place and this 9 out of 10 game losing streak really means nothing because pat will 'eventually' get things right.

Not me, this 2006 team is one of - if not the most talented team Pat has coached in ten years!

However, Pat's offensive game plan is WRONG at that is why we are 1-6. Pat's defense plan is wrong and that is why we are 1-6.

Pat HAS to take accountability and STEP UP and make the tough decisions and FIRE THE INADEQUATE COACHES that are 'poisoning' this team.

ONLY THEN, will PH get this mess turned around, if not, we will continue to be EMBARASSED week after week.

As far as Boise St. game, hell yeah I want FSU to win. However, if I was betting I would put my money on BSU. Why? because of everything I mentioned above. BSU is a better team.

PH WILL NOT change anything this week for the BSU match up and our offense will NOT score enough AGAIN and our defense WILL give up too much.

We need change. If you can't admit than, then you only want to be a 'small time' program in a small time cow town.

"Shut Your Mouth and Just Win"

evolution2.0 said...

Now that was pretty funny.

"formerdog", even you have to admit that was funny.

I have to agree with you on the D part though. I think this is a good year to make a change. We have never been stellar on Defense. The only game I can remember that we played D good enough to bail our team out was against UCLA in the SVC.

I really think that if we had a better D-coordinator in 2001, we would have gone undefeated.

I don't think we can make a good judgement call on Hagan though. It looks to me like the direction was to keep the playbook about the same from last year. But to rely more on the running game to take some pressure off the QB.

It make sense of you think about it. A big change is going to play havoc with what you already have in place. It really didn't matter too much in this casee though, the O was bad regardless.

Out of curiousity, what were the breakdowns of the run/pass for the last game?


formerdog said...

evolution 2.0:

1st and 2nd down stats vs. LSU:


1st down rushing: 13 of 23 (56%)
2nd down rushing: 10 of 19 (52%)

1st half stats:

7 of 11 RUSHING ATTEMPTS on 1st down (63%)
5 of 9 RUSHING ATTEMPTS on 2nd down (55%)

2nd half stats: ( down 0-14)

6 of 12 RUSHING ATTEMPTS on 1st down (50%)
5 of 10 RUSHING ATTEMPTS on 2nd down (50%)

This shows that we we just a schmidge bit better than vs. Hawaii, (% wise) but c'mon, 54% rushing on 1st and 2nd downs AGAINST the #1 defense in the land? - NO WAY, and we were playing catch up ALL NIGHT LONG.

The poor play calling and execution put NORTON AT 3RD AND LONG.

1 for 12 on 3rd down conversion (8%) OUCH!!!!!

Here's what we had on 3rd down attempts tonight:
3rd and: 8, 8, 8, 6, 9, 5, 3, goal (12), 1, 18, 5, 5

I would have expected Pat Hill to at least say that he CANNOT expect to run straight up the gut against the #1 d. in the nation, but as you saw - NO.

He kep doing it all night long, never trying to advance the ball UP the field.

We will NEVER succeede with this offensive scheme.

Anonymous said...

I agree with FormerDog. If PH did not change the plan against the number 1 Defense in nation then why would he change it vs. Boise?

We will lose against Boise due to insufficient offensive production. This will be due to PH's fear to let Norton air it out more often.

How ridiculous is PH that he must "stay the course."

Anonymous said...

I really think that if we had a better D-coordinator in 2001, we would have gone undefeated.

In 2001 our D was good enough to win. Was Coyle still coordinator?

The thing that real sticks with me is that in 01 the weeks prior to the Boise game, Pat Hill was defending himself by not "running up" the score. He was taking criticism about not putting lesser teams away like Nebraska or Tennessee did.He would say stuff like "I'm not that kind of coach" and " that's not how we do things here" and other nonsense.

So we get up on Boise straight away. I remember thinking to myself "oh man, this is going to be over in a hurry"

Then Pat decides that a 14 or 17 (can't remember)point lead is good enough. Heavy dose of Paris Gains. A lot of 3 and outs. Boise hits the long play. Fresno panics. Ball game.

FSU crying on there own field, BCS bowl hopes shattered, the birth of Boise's dominance in the WAC, and the "lets run on first down come hell or high water" was born in Bulldog stadium in the second half of the Boise State game in 2001.

Anonymous said...

Coyle bio:

He finished with us in 2000.

BoiseFan said...

I'm seeing a lot of frustration. Rightly felt perhaps, but from the BSU perspective, we think that Fresno has a great program, but know that even great programs have bad years. Most of my friends, if they couldn't be BSU fans, would be Fresno fans. Is that respect enough?

That is why we cheered our hearts out when Fresno played in the MPC bowl.

Study tape, find our weaknesses and bring your A game. Good football is about competing against respected rivals, not about national rankings, running up scores or tromping weak opponents.

We know you have great talent. We know you have played really good teams. We know you know our program well enough to be competitive.

We also know Fresno can potentially beat any team, any where on any particular day. So don't expect us to take you lightly -- even on bad years.

Fresno will be back. Everyone at BSU understands this. Our rise in respect in ever linked to Fresno's.

Like knows like.