Thursday, January 04, 2007

Does a Boise Win Equal a Playoff?

Monday night we all watched Boise State dominate Oklahoma for three quarters only to have to pull out a victory in overtime 43-42. First and foremost let me tell you my view of this game. Boise State should have won this game easily. This game should not have come down to trick plays for the Broncos. This game should have been put away in the third quarter but wasn't. However, I am not going to take away what the Broncos did. In the end they won against a top ten football team on the national stage. Boise finally came through and beat a team while everyone in the nation watched. However I want to address a point I have been hearing since this game was put to bed. Since Boise State finished 13-0 I have heard numerous reasons why their should be a playoff. I today will construct that playoff for you just to show that a playoff will never work in college football (at least not in today's game). Just so everyone knows I advocate a playoff because I feel that is the single best way to crown a true champion, but the problem is the voters and computers will never allow a playoff to be fair. I will use an 8 team format with the seedings from the BCS because that is most likely what kind of playoff format would be approved. The seedings will go as follows:

1) Ohio State
2) Florida
3) Michigan
4) LSU
5) USC
6) Louisville
7) Wisconsin
8) Boise State

Right away most of you should notice a problem with these rankings. If there were a playoff Boise State would open with the #1 team in the nation Ohio State and the game would probable take place at the HorseShoe. There is just no way the Broncos win a game there. However, Say the Broncos somehow do shock the world they then are awarded a game at either LSU or USC. Once again can anyone see the Broncos beating either the Trojans or Tigers in their respective stadiums? Well let's just say Boise somehow pulls off that shocker and reaches the national championship game. This game would be at a neutral site with the Broncos facing either Michigan or Florida. I could see Boise beating either of these two teams in the first round, but after two grueling games against Ohio State and either LSU or USC I just don't think our mid-major partner would have enough left in the tank to win the game.

In the end the voters are not going to allow a playoff to work. There is no way the Broncos are an eight seed in a playoff this year but can you conceivably see the Broncos being ranked any higher at the end of the season? You may try and use the Utah argument but remember the Utes were ranked #5 when chosen for the BCS. The Utes would still be required to play two road games to win the championship. If the voters could see a mid-major as an equal to the major BCS conferences a playoff would be the right way to go. However, if we had a playoff today Boise State's amazing win over Oklahoma would have been nothing more than a first round win giving them a chance to play an even better team in the second round. Do we really want something like that to happen? Do you feel like Fresno State could beat three top ten teams (two of them on the road) to win the national championship? I am sorry but I do not want to see that happen anytime soon. Until there is an equal between all conferences a playoff will never be fair and should not be used.

By the way I have noticed much love on the barkboard for the way Boise State played against Oklahoma on Monday. I have a question for every Bulldog fan out there. If Fresno State had beaten Oklahoma the same way Boise did would we rejoice or instead would we complain about the terrible fourth quarter our team put together? I would guess the second of the two choices to be correct. So why is it that we give Boise so much props for a win like this but knock the Bulldogs if they do the same type of thing? Just a question for anyone who reads the blog. Let me know what you think.


evolution2.0 said...

I think the difference is that if Fresno went to the same game and won it it would be some what expected. People have heard about Fresno knocking of the big boys. Boise was like Utah was...a random team that no one gave a chance on such a big scale. People are use to us beating big name teams.

It is funny that we have risen to such a high level of expectation without ever making the big game. That's genius in my book. I listened to the Boise State Announcer in an interview on a morning radio show here in the Bay Area say, "We are finally start to make a name for ourselves like Fresno State has." That statement is very telling of how the people outside of Fresno feel about our team.


nsc said...

Yes the perception of Fresno State is that we do beat the big teams but I am starting to live in the reality and throw away the perception. We have not beaten a BCS team since K-State in 2004 and to me that is not the type of team we are anymore.

Fresno State needs to get back to playing the type of football they did during that 2004 season. Without an injury to Dwayne Wright that team possibly goes 12-0 with a shot at the BCS. If we could find the balance the 2004 team came away with the Dogs may soon be back to where they were before the 2006 season.

Anonymous said...

I have been reading your blog a fair amount during the season and find it quite interesting. To answer your question of would us Fresno State fans bitch or celebrate that win, I would certainly say that we would have celebrated. Just like we would have celebrated had we beat Oregon in 2005, when we almost came back after giving up a huge 1st half lead. I also think we would have celebrated had we managed to come back against USC in 2005, even though we let Bush run all over the place.

Don't let your rather half glass mentality give you the wrong impression about most of us FSU fans. I'm happy for Boise, and I think most of us can easily forget about the 4th qtr collapse, as we would if it had been the Bulldogs...Chris

nsc said...

Yeah Chris I would like to believe that most of us could find joy in the Bulldogs winning a game like Boise did. However, living here I realize that many fans won't be happy until the Dogs go 12-0 and play for the national championship. I don't blame the fans for that type of thought process, reason being Pat Hill led people to believe the Dogs are capable of doing so.

Anyhow I was happy with our performance against USC and would like a win such as the Oklahoma win. I hope we can get back to beating BCS teams in the future starting in 2007 with both Oregon and K-state.

Morgan said...

is it just me or has Fresno lost a step or has everyone else cought up to the Bulldogs. look all overe the WAC and i see all the teams geting better and better every year and the Dogs have stayed the same or in some cases goten worse. dose any one else see this.

nsc said...

Yes the Dogs are not the toast of the town anymore, this is true. Unfortunately while we have fallen on hard times Boise State has started to run away from us. Nevada has steadily improved as has Hawaii. Don't read into San Jose's season, they only beat one team with a winning record and that was div 1AA Cal Poly. But we are definitely falling behind in the WAC race.

Anonymous said...

To me it is simple, the team and the staff showed that they were playing to win, however, I can't say that with our Staff as shown this past and previous years with the play calling. Who wouldn't support creative and well coached teams, but that has not been the case. How do you go into the Nevada game after the USC game and not have your team prepared. Every time Boise plays a game in our conference they are marked, yet their staff prepares for that, the same is not true with Hill and his staff as shown over the past season with Utah State. Dennis

Anonymous said...

It was exciting to watch a well coached, disciplined football team such as Boise. Fresno st. coaching staff cannot even compare with Boise or for that matter even Hawaii. Hill and his staff are falling behind quickly.

Anonymous said...

All that matters is the "W" , but the Bulldogs know very little about "W"'s.

Anonymous said...

I saw a confident Boise State team and coaching staff that never paniced. They performed while under extreme pressure and that is the difference between P.Hill and the Boise staff. They are creative and keep defenses guessing and in a way creating doubt. Hill and his play calling is like reading "Coaching College Football for Idiots". If he is going to be successful, he needs to let someone else run the offense that has a creative plan to win. Putting the best players on the field will also be required. Playing favorites with players should be left to little league coaches.The Dogs's defenses have also allowed massive scoring by other teams since the days of David Carr putting pressure on our offenses. I think this coming season will make us realize that Pat Hill will have to move on if some offensive genious does'nt come to his rescue.It is time to wake up Mr. Hill.Realzing where one is weak and filling that void makes for a great coach.

Anonymous said...

I was in Hawaii for the last week, and did not get to read your posts, NSC (cruise ships charge too much for their internet "service"). I think you have missed the mark on this post, though.

First, if a visiting team could not beat a team like Ohio on their home field, then there is serious doubt about whether or not such a team should be a national champion.

Second, yes there would be comment on the "4th quarter collapse" if Fresno State beat Oklahoma like Boise did--but that's a big "IF!" The 'Dogs did not come close to beating the Sooners, and collapse into a loss at SC--not the same thing at all. Yet if the 'Dogs did beat either of those teams, I can assure you that there would be "...much joy in Mudville."

Finally, did creativity win the day for Boise, or what!?!

Steve Burnes

nsc said...

Steve that last part was not the point of my post, I think maybe you missed what I was trying to talk about here. I was stating that a playoff is not going to fix what is wrong in college football from the view of a mid-major. We will still be held out of the bigger games because of the view that the media and voters have of a school such as Boise or Fresno State.

There is no arguing that an undefeated Boise loses two games in the SEC or PAC-10. Those conferences would wear down our schools and our depth would be exposed. That is why I am a supporter of the BCS and a plus one format. One day the voters might feel compelled to put an undefeated WAC team in the championship game. In a playoff we will always be so low of a seed that playing three top five teams on the road to win it all would be a possibility, and last I checked that has never happened before.